Look Back in Wonder/Horror

Yes, readers, it's time to review last year's FEARLESS PREDICTIONS to see how well (that is poorly) I anticipated 2011, back in 2010.

First of all, I fearlessly (foolishly) predicted the Dow Jones average would hit 14,000 by the end of this year. Ain't gonna make it, despite the recent surge. Republicans, far from claiming credit for the economic recovery are decrying the continuing problems, especially the unemployment rate that is still about nine percent, as predicted twelve long months ago.

Then, as if that wasn't bad enough, your prognosticator said the Red Sox and Rockies would play in the World Series. Who knew there'd be a September collapse for the Sox and the Rockies would never get rolling.

Internet speed keeps improving, as predicted, and the "aps" continue to grow like hobgoblins. This is especially true for me because I moved boldly into the 21st century (finally) with my very own high speed wireless connection.

We have kicked the can down the road by ignoring global warming for one more year. Senator Imhof managed to get through the whole year without publicly denying that warming is taking place, possibly because the GOP position has morphed to acknowledge that earth is getting hotter but it's natural and therefore nothing needs to be done.

Yet another bad prediction - no snowshoes for Christmas last year.

A better prediction - about ten Republicans did declare for president in 2011, though Sarah Palin was not one of them (yet). They have nevertheless given us plenty of entertainment, with Rick Perry filling in quite well for Ms. Palin.

Finally the prediction I'm saddest to say didn't happen. No lottery winner for this household.

Next time, FEARLESS PREDICTIONS for 2012!

Pepper Spray

The incident at UCal Davis in which a police officer sprayed pepper on a line of Occupy Wall Street demonstrators has gone viral and been shown on CNN and other news outlets. Predictably, comment has been all over the place, including some pundits who blame the protestors.

Speaking as someone whjo once worked in law enforcement, I'll chime in with a few remarks of my own. Back when I was chief ranger at Richmond National Battlefield Park, we converted from mace to pepper spray as our non-lethal weapon for incapacitating threatening people. The reasoning was that mace is a chemical agent and a person who is really determined, or under the influence of narcotics, can fight through it and continue an attack. Pepper spray, on the other hand, is a biological agent that causes an allergic reaction that no one can ignore. It will put you down.

The manafacturer provided information on use the warned against using the spray in an enclosed area or spraying into the wind. The Park Service provided training materials and guidelines for use in the field. As personnel who were expected to handle political demonstrations, we also were trained in methods of moving passive persons without hurting them.

I have no doubt that the Davis Police Department trains its officers in the uses of pepper spray, both in terms of safety and appropriateness. Judging by what I saw on the video recording, the officer greatly exceeded - indeed obliterated - his training. He needs to find another way to make his living, because he cannot be a police officer anymore. In addition, any supervisor who approved this use of the spray, or failed to stop it, should be fired.

All freedom loving people should deplore this clear violation of the civil liberties we all have been taught to hold precious.

Virtue, Vice and Conundrums

Grammar Guy, that sourge of the illiterate and the self-satisfied, is back to continue his lonely struggle against misuse of the mother tongue. Today he tackles the ways in which we express ourselves in order to justify our bad behavior.

First of all, Grammar Guy wants us all to know he is never stubborn. He is tenacious. That is, if anyone rejects Grammar Guy's advice, that person is stubborn. If, on the other hand, Grammar Guy won't accept someone else's advice, Grammar Guy is tenacious.

Grammar Guy knows that just a little self-justification - a dash is all it takes - can make a virtue from almost any vice. Grammar Guy, for example, is never proud. Pride is a vice. Instead, our literate hero is confident.

See how easy it is? Grammar Guy is not impotent, he's chaste. He's not just a greedy bastard, he's thrifty. Jealousy is not becoming for Grammar Guy, but good healthy ambition is something he clings to.

A little more rationalization makes one eligible to participate in politics! No, no, no, no American would use all his money and influence, no matter how obtained, to dodge taxation. That's not being un-patriotic. It's being a "wealth creator." Similarly, anyone who objects to lower taxes for wealthy people isn't trying to create a more just society, that person is fomenting "class warfare."

Grammar Guy knows that his acolytes will think of other examples all by themselves. Therefore, he says adieu for now, secure in the knowledge that he's not too lazy to write anymore, he's taking a well-deserved rest.

And, happy Thanksgiving to one and all.

China

Is China a threat? A friend or a foe? Herman Cain doesn't know, thinks China might develop a nuclear weapon 47 years after they actually did so, but perhaps we can explore the question free from hystrionics and ignorance.

The Chinese are exporting enormous quantities of goods, and Chinese bankers have become a financial power during the last few years. Aside from setting Mao spinning around in his grave, this has caused a great deal of concern here. We're in hock up to our ears to the Chinese and scared they'll call our debts at some time when we're unable to repay them - like now for example.

The Chinese military is flexing its muscles and has become a regional power. President Obama just announced that we will now have a small military presence in Australia, and who else can it be aimed at containing? My own opinion is that the Chinese are contained pretty well already by the nations of southeast Asia, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Still, their target would be Taiwan and they'll probably expand their influence economically rather than militarily.

So, we run a big fat trade deficit with China, and must pay them large amounts of money as interest on loans they've made to us. But China has its own problems. The population of China has assumedly nearly stabilized, but that means its aging and they will have huge health care costs in coming years. Every bit as bad, the environmental degradation in China has been severe and is getting worse as China becomes a larger consumer of resources. Finally, the Chinese prosperity is distributed very unevenly - modernization is transforming Chinese cities, but much of the countryside remains poor and backward.

Should we be worried? I think a stable prosperous China is much to the advantage of the United States. Eventually they'll want to spend the money they're raking in now and we should be there to sell them our products, leveling out that trade imbalance. As China prospers, Chinese workers will be able to demand more money and government services, making their goods more expensive and foreign products more attractive. (This presumes that its oligarchical rulers can be compelled to loosen their grip on the government.)

China will continue to emerge as a major world power no matter what our attitude is. Lets make the best of the situation by wary diplomacy, not forgetting Tienanman Square, but realizing the best form of diplomacy is to do business with governments that are doing business.

(Funny. Seventy years ago when China was in chaos and much of the country was occupied by the Japanese, President Roosevelt was far-sighted enough to see that it would become a great nation, as it has been for millennia.)

The GOP Horserace

Okay, sports fans, as the GOP contenders pound through the backstretch and approach the far turn it's time to see how they're doing and handicap the finish.

Jon Huntsman: trailing the field and there's no way he can close ground on the leaders.

Michelle Bachman: stuck her nose in front before the first turn, but now is fading and will finish way up the track.

Newt Gingrich: has been biding his time hoping for the frontrunners to stumble. It won't matter. He doesn't have any speed.

Rick Perry: had his moment in front, now fading fast. Falling over his own feet. It's hard to run when you keep getting your hoof caught in your mouth.

Ron Paul: favorite of longshot betters, but no chance.

Herman Cain: another longshot prior to the race, surprisingly had the lead but badly bumped and can't change his leads.

Mitt Romney: properly positioned just behind the pace setters, ready to take the lead as they enter the stretch, but will payoff very little to his backers.

Unfortunately for these racers, the purse for this race will be very small, just a sentence or two in the history books. In next fall's match race, Barack Obama will be the winner.

An Apostate Catholic

Shortly after moving to Colorado back in 2005, I stopped attending mass. There are a number of reasons why I became a Catholic in name only, and why I'm now considering starting to participate in the faith again.

First of all, let me say my rejection of the forms of the Catholic tradition had little to do with the sex scandals that erupted in the 1990's. Personally, I think the celibacy rule for priests is just silly and in fact contradicts the roots of the Christian tradition. Peter, after all, was married or widowed and there's no reason to think the other apostles were single men. For that matter, it seems likely to me that Jesus must have been married - otherwise, the implication is that he was gay.

No, the sex scandals were the horrific result of an unrealistic requirement imposed on men who had, or thought they had, a vocation. What troubled me about the church as an institution was first the cover-up of the scandal, which amounted to obstruction of justice, and a tacit willingness to permit pedophiles to continue preying on children, and second the accumulated resources of the church that allowed payment of settlements to the vicitms totaling more than $100 million.

Where'd the church get that kind of money? Every Catholic parish I ever attended periodically claimed it was on the ragged edge of insolvency and begged for greater donations from the faithful. They were sitting on enormous financial resources while "guilting" parishioners who very often were people of modest means, struggling with their own finances. That was a turn-off.

On a less profound level, I have become used to a leisurely Sunday morning spent with a second or third cup of coffee and the Sunday newspaper. Mass can't compete with the Los Angeles Times crossword puzzle. Since I work on Saturdays and Mondays, Sunday became a day of rest in the literal sense and I have enjoyed not having to get dressed and go anywhere.

But after half a decade away, I'm thinking of going back. Part of my reasoning is that attending a time honored activity is what we once called a "warm fuzzy," that is a group gathering that takes us back to childhood, back to happy times now recollected as life begins its inexorable passage to its inexorable end.

Another part of the same feeling comes from the commandment, "Honor thy father and thy mother." My dad especially was what we used to describe as "More Catholic than the pope." Dropping back into the forms of the faith is a way of remembering them both and paying homage to their way of life.

Even more than that, I feel a real resurgence of the idea of a social gospel now. After decades of individualist Christianity, we once again are seeing what I believe is the true essence of the faith, the simple thought that we are our brothers' (and sisters') keepers and are commanded to help one another in this world, rather than emphasize a world to come that is attained by a head in the clouds type of faith. I guess I reject Lutheranism and fundamentalist Christianity all in the same breath here. And I'm not speaking about getting on the building committee or anything like that. What I mean is the old "corporal works of mercy" - feeding the hungry, giving comfort to the sick, seeking justice. Following, in short, the Sermon on the Mount.

So maybe I'll get involved in the church again. Meanwhile, what's a seven letter word for "collectibles from faraway lands?" The second letter is x.

The Sad Saga of Herman Cain

As of last night, Mr. Herman Cain was still struggling over the allegations of two, three or six women that he had harassed them sexually back in the 1990's. After denying any such thing had ever taken place he then admitted that cash settlements were made on two of the women though he had no knowledge of those settlements.

Cain is hardly the first man ever to be so accused. He's also not the first guy who ever twisted in the wind trying to explain himself. In his case, the accusations gain credibility because of the number of different women involved and his strange way of defending himself.

This is a man who has been a great success in the business world, and we might suspect he owes that success to his attention to his business dealings. So how could a man so involved with his own life have no idea that settlements valued in five figures had been made from his personal resources to get rid of lawsuits? It doesn't compute. He looks like a cad or a fool.

As far as the accusations themselves are concerned, let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

It does bother me that the Republicans have for years postured themselves as the guardians of private morality, when in fact they are no less inclined to transgress than anyone else.

Deuteronomy 15, 1-11

1: At the end of every seven years thou shalt make a release. 2: And this is the manner of the release: Every creditor that lendeth ought unto his neighbour shall release it; he shall not exact it of his neighbour, or of his brother; because it is called the LORD's release. 3: Of a foreigner thou mayest exact it again: but that which is thine with thy brother thine hand shall release; 4: Save when there shall be no poor among you; for the LORD shall greatly bless thee in the land which the LORD thy God giveth thee for an inheritance to possess it: 5: Only if thou carefully hearken unto the voice of the LORD thy God, to observe to do all these commandments which I command thee this day. 6: For the LORD thy God blesseth thee, as he promised thee: and thou shalt lend unto many nations, but thou shalt not borrow; and thou shalt reign over many nations, but they shall not reign over thee. 7: If there be among you a poor man of one of thy brethren within any of thy gates in thy land which the LORD thy God giveth thee, thou shalt not harden thine heart, nor shut thine hand from thy poor brother: 8: But thou shalt open thine hand wide unto him, and shalt surely lend him sufficient for his need, in that which he wanteth. 9: Beware that there be not a thought in thy wicked heart, saying, The seventh year, the year of release, is at hand; and thine eye be evil against thy poor brother, and thou givest him nought; and he cry unto the LORD against thee, and it be sin unto thee. 10: Thou shalt surely give him, and thine heart shall not be grieved when thou givest unto him: because that for this thing the LORD thy God shall bless thee in all thy works, and in all that thou puttest thine hand unto. 11: For the poor shall never cease out of the land: therefore I command thee, saying, Thou shalt open thine hand wide unto thy brother, to thy poor, and to thy needy, in thy land.

I wonder what the people at PayDay Loans think about this!