The Iowa cauuses are over, assumedly much to the relief of Iowans, and now the rapt attention of CNN and MSNBC will be fixed on New Hampshire for a week, before rocketing to South Carolina and then on to Florida. Like the rest of you I only want to say, "Is this any way to run a railroad?"
Actually, the entrance polls in Iowa were quite revealing, especially in what they said about which Republicans favor Mitt Romney. Romney did best among male participants who are elderly, white, and affluent. I think if he and the Republicans can't expand their appeal quite a bit by November trhey're headed for a big defeat.
There are Republicans who are not male, white, elderly or affluent, of course. The richest among them and the most highly educated were attracted to Ron Paul, while Rick Santorum, latest and possibly last darling of the "Anyone but Romney," faction, took the votes of the less well educated, less wealthy GOP voters. Probably the same constituent breakdown will occur in the next few primary states.
It seems a little ironic that Santorum, who is described as a devout Catholic, fares well with Republicans who think of themselves as evangelical born-again Christians. I say this thinking of the occasional accusation one hears that the Catholic church is a cult and not really Christian at all.
As usual, this year the vote will break somewhat by gender - men for the Republicans and women for the Democrats. In addition, the Democrats can count on majorities among black Americans, Latinos (except for Cuban Americans, a significant factor in Florida), and, until recently, Jewish citizens. All of this is good news for President Obama. In fact, an examination of presidential elections since 1972 shows a gradual upward trend for the Democrats for the last forty years, excepting only 1984.
So there you have it. Unless the Republicans can think of some way to detach a significant part of the Democratic coalition, Mr. Obama will have four more years in the White House, probably still check-mated by a Republican majority in one or both houses of Congress. If you liked the last two years, you're gonna love the next four. For the rest of us, it'll be more cynicism and apathy.
As a Republican, I think the field is pretty dismal. I voted for Romney for U.S. Senate in 1994 (against Ted Kennedy) and for Governor in 2002. Romney is "all over the place" politically, and more than politically, just as a person. WHO is he? I cannot vote for him again. He ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in '94 and was adamantly pro-choice and pro Planned Parenthood in 2002. Now he is the "pro life candidate"?! And is he even a Mass. resident anymore? He sold his property in Belmont, MA. My kids (Jon and Rachel) LOVE Ron Paul. I like Ron Paul TO A POINT, but he IS "out there" on certain issues. I do like Santorum. Yes, we evangelical Protestants are much likely to warm up to him than are "mainstream" Roman Catholics. He is in the 10% of Roman Catholics that literally believe and do exactly as the Pope says. My son is convinced that Obama will be reelected...that none of these Republicans can beat him...and that is probably true. Listen, I like Scott Brown, Republican Senator of MA who has a history of working with Democrats and who decrys the wall of hostility between the GOP and President. Brown feels the GOP has GOT to work with the President and the Democrats on at least some issues we can pretty much all agree on, and Brown is correct.
ReplyDelete