I've been tracking the political polls lately. (You can see them yourself at Real Clear Politics.) State by state polls exist for the presidential election, and although it's still more than five months until election day, things look pretty good for President Obama.
If today was election day, the president would win by about the same margin he had in 2008. The only state he carried that year that looks doubtful now is Indiana. Granted, some states he carried handily four years ago are "in play" now, as the pundits like to say, but most of them are outside the margin of error. Florida and North Carolina will be extremely close this November, but Pennsylvania, Ohio and the upper midwest states all are within his reach.
In fact, I really don't see a way that Mitt Romney can reach 270 electoral votes. If he carries all the states that Senator McCain won four years ago, and Florida, and Ohio, and Virginia, and North Carolina, and Indiana, he's still short of an electoral majority. Only if you take all those and add Pennsylvania, or Colorado, do you get the magic number for Mitt. Meanwhile, Arizona might be close, and Obama might pull off a victory in the Dakotas and Montana.
So if you're a Democrat, take heart, and if that heart belongs to the GOP you might start thinking about how to build a majority for 2016.
No comments:
Post a Comment