A Little Logic Lesson

Michelle Bachman says a woman approached her after the recent Republican presidential debate, claiming her daughter became mentally retarded after being vaccinated against cervical cancer as mandated by Governor Rick Perry of Texas. Ms. Bachman had excoriated Perry during the debate on this subject. According to Ms. Bachman, Perry forced little adolescent girls to undergo the vaccination, implying the wishes of the girls' parents were ignored by the governor.

This is an illustration of the difference between scientific and anecdotal information. Consider: the little girl had the vaccine, then became "retarded." (I object to the term.) Therefore, the vaccine must have caused the retardation. But we all know that other factors might have been the cause. The mere fact that two events occur does not mean the first event caused the second event.

Even if the vaccine did cause the girl's difficulties, that doesn't necessarily invalidate the vaccination program. If a million people undergo a process and one is affected adversely that doesn't mean the process is so flawed that it should be abandoned. How many cases of cervical cancer were averted by the vaccine?

My wife jokingly (I think) has established a "Married to Barils Support Group." I'm not sure if they're trying to support those of us who have that surname or if it's intended to support one another, but their motto is "We could have done worse!"

I bring this up thinking of the 2009 stimulus act and the president's new proposal for public works. All the Republicans chorus that the 2009 bill did nothing to right the economy because the unemployment rate rose even after the act was passed and the money was spent. Therefore, the stimulus package was a failure, and should not be repeated. Governor Perry insists the stimulus did not create a single job, without citing any statistics or other information.

Once again, if one thing precedes another thing, it doesn't mean the first thing caused the second thing.

So, I think President Obama should borrow my wife's slogan for his re-election effort. "We could have done worse!" Where would we be if the government hadn't acted to stimulate the economy in 2009?