Make Sure She Can Spell "Potato"

Will Sarah Palin run for president in 2012? Some say yes, as judged from bumper stickers seen around town, and many hope not. Some Democrats are undoubtedly licking their chops, thinking Ms. Palin would be a spectacularly weak candidate who would be defeated easily by President Obama.

I would caution my friends not to underestimate Sarah Palin. She evokes visceral feelings among the electorate in a way no other Republican does. She would certainly turn out her partisans on election day. The question is, could she expand her following from the right-wing into the mainstream.

History suggests she cannot. I can think of two obstacles she would have a very difficult time overcoming. First, she is from a small state, electorally speaking. Alaska has only three votes in the Electoral College, and I cannot think of a single president who ever was elected from a state with so few votes. Think back, and you'll find most presidents come from much more populous states. Bill Clinton was elected from Arkansas, it's true, but Arkansas has twice as many electoral votes as Alaska, and Mr. Clinton fell in with my second political maxim.

That is, presidents tend to come from the center of the country. Candidates from the periphery of the country historically do not do well. Again, think of a president who came from a seacoast state that was not among the largest in the country. President Carter might come to mind, though Georgia should be classified as a medium sized state electorally. Even at that, Carter can be thought of as the exception that proves the rule. He was, after all, defeated for re-election by a candidate from a much more populous state.

So Sarah Palin would, in my opinion, have a very difficult time winning a national election. Still, what alternative do the Republicans have? Mitt Romney? Tim Pawlenty? Yawn!

Unless someone else emerges very soon, I think President Obama will be returned to the White House very handily in 2012.